– The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in one of its latest reports on Asia and the Pacific, has identified Sri Lanka as a country to be wetter than average starting from October as a result of the El Niño phenomenon.

The report, which highlights snapshots of El Niño, said that for Sri Lanka, the wetter signal becomes particularly important from October 2026 onwards, as it coincides with the Second Inter-Monsoon (October–November), typically the wettest period of the year across the country, followed by the Northeast Monsoon from December to February.A substantial proportion of Sri Lanka’s annual rainfall is received during these latter parts of the year, and the Second Inter-Monsoon is particularly important because rainfall is widespread across much of the island and can be locally intense, according to the report.

As with Pakistan, the evolution of the IOD, particularly if it strengthens into a positive phase, will be important in determining wetter conditions, the report says.The FAO says the latest forecasts point increasingly towards a very strong, and potentially exceptional, El Niño — it could rank among the strongest events in the historical record and may extend well into 2027. However, its strength alone will not determine impacts. What matters is where rainfall and temperature anomalies coincide with crop calendars, water scarcity, vulnerable livelihoods and limited coping capacity.The combined impact could result in an additional 8.2 million people facing acute food insecurity in Asia and the Pacific in just a few monitored countries, with the overall number likely higher.

The risk is already emerging, but widespread impacts have not yet materialized. This provides a critical, and narrowing, window for preparedness and anticipatory action. The most serious agricultural and food-security impacts may not emerge until late 2026 and 2027, leaving a short window to act before losses become entrenched. Humanitarian and development actors must work closely with National governments to strengthen monitoring, preparedness, anticipatory action and response as early as possible.The three Fs (food, fuel, fertilizer) are creating a cascading shock where urea prices more than doubled at their peak, while fuel and food prices remain elevated, raising the risk that climate-related production losses translate into higher food insecurity in late 2026 and 2027.